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The signal and the noise : why so many predictions--fail but some don't

by Silver, Nate.
Publisher: New York : Penguin Press, 2012Description: 534 p. : ill. ; 25 cm.ISBN: 9781594204111; 159420411X.Subject(s): Forecasting | Forecasting -- Methodology | Forecasting -- History | Bayesian statistical decision theory | Knowledge, Theory of
Contents:
A catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit? -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em ... -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you.
Summary: Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction.
Item type Location Call number Copy Status Date due
BOOK BOOK Mesa Lab CB158 .S54 2012 (Browse shelf) 1 Available

Includes bibliographical references (p. 459-514) and index.

A catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit? -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em ... -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you.

Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction.

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