An update of Indonesian household-level income and consumption patterns as an input to the iPETS model. / by Emily K. Laidlaw

2018-03

The integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model is a global integrated assessment model developed and used by NCAR's Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) group to understand how key aspects of society may evolve in the future and how they might interact with a changing climate. Income and consumption patterns of households by demographic characteristics are used to calibrate parameters in iPETS for each of nine world regions. These income and consumption patterns are obtained from analysis of country-specific socioeconomic household surveys. iPETS parameters based on these results are combined with demographic projections of expected changes in population size, age structure, education, household structure, and urbanization to improve economic, energy, land use, and emissions projections. Because household income and consumption patterns can change substantially over time, particularly in developing countries, periodic updates of the household-level data used in iPETS are needed. This paper describes an updated analysis of Indonesian household data, based on the 2013 SUSENAS National Social Economic Survey. This analysis further classified households by education level, in addition to previously analyzed demographic characteristics, and also differentiated results by income deciles and access to electricity. Results indicated that higher incomes and expenditures were associated with higher levels of education, lower household sizes, residence in urban areas, and access to electricity. A comparison between 2002 and 2013 SUSENAS data showed that the share of expenditures on food decreased during this time, while the share spent on other goods and services and particularly on transportation increased, consistent with changes commonly observed in developing countries.