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Predicting Our Climate Future : What We Know, What We Don't Know, and What We Can't Know

By: Publisher: Oxford, United Kingdom ; New York : Oxford University Press, 2023Copyright date: 2023Description: vi, 356 pages : illustrations (chiefly color) ; 25 cmContent type:
  • text
  • still image
Media type:
  • unmediated
Carrier type:
  • volume
ISBN:
  • 0198812930
  • 9780198812937
Subject(s): DDC classification:
  • 363.738/74 23
LOC classification:
  • TD171.75 .S73 2023
Contents:
Part 1: Characteristics. The obvious and the obscure -- A problem of prediction -- Going beyond what we've seen -- The one-shot bet -- From chaos to pandemonium -- The curse of bigger and better computers -- Talking at cross-purposes -- Not just of academic interest -- Part 2: Challenges. Challenge 1: how to balance justified arrogance with essential humility? Stepping up to the task of prediction ; The times they are a-changin' ; Starting from scratch ; Are scientists being asked to answer impossible questions? -- Challenge 2: Tying down what we mean by climate and climage change. The essence of climate ; A walk in three dimensions ; A walk in three dimensions over a two-dimensional sea -- Challenge 3: When is a study with a climate model a study of climate change? Climate change in climate models -- Challenge 4: How can we measure what climate is now and how it has changed? Measuring climate change -- Challenge 5: How can we relate what happens in a model to what will happen in reality? Can climate models be realistic? ; More models, better information? ; How bad is too bad? -- Challenge 6: How can we use today's climate science well? What we do with what we've got -- Challenge 7: Getting a grip on the scale of future changes in climate. Stuff of the Genesis myth ; Things... can only get hotter -- Challenge 8: How can we use the information we have, or could have, to design a future that is better than it would otherwise be? Making it personal ; Where physics and economics meet -- Challenge 9: How can we build physical and social science that is up to the task of informing society about what matters for society? Controlling factors ; Beyond comprehension? No, just new challenges for human intellect.
Summary: "Climate change raises new, foundational challenges in science. It requires us to question what we know and how we know it. The subject is important for society but the science is young and history tells us that scientists can get things wrong before they get them right. How, then, can we judge what information is reliable and what is open to question? This book goes to the heart of the climate change problem to answer this question ... Ultimately, the book argues for a rethinking of how we go about the study of climate change in the physical sciences, the social sciences, economics, and policy. The subject requires nothing less than a restructuring of academic research to enable integration of expertise across diverse disciplines and perspectives"--Book jacket flap.
List(s) this item appears in: 2024 New Titles
Holdings
Item type Current library Call number Copy number Status Date due Barcode Item holds
BOOK BOOK NCAR Library Mesa Lab TD171.75 .S73 2023 1 Checked out 03/11/2025 50583020031765
Total holds: 0

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Part 1: Characteristics. The obvious and the obscure -- A problem of prediction -- Going beyond what we've seen -- The one-shot bet -- From chaos to pandemonium -- The curse of bigger and better computers -- Talking at cross-purposes -- Not just of academic interest -- Part 2: Challenges. Challenge 1: how to balance justified arrogance with essential humility? Stepping up to the task of prediction ; The times they are a-changin' ; Starting from scratch ; Are scientists being asked to answer impossible questions? -- Challenge 2: Tying down what we mean by climate and climage change. The essence of climate ; A walk in three dimensions ; A walk in three dimensions over a two-dimensional sea -- Challenge 3: When is a study with a climate model a study of climate change? Climate change in climate models -- Challenge 4: How can we measure what climate is now and how it has changed? Measuring climate change -- Challenge 5: How can we relate what happens in a model to what will happen in reality? Can climate models be realistic? ; More models, better information? ; How bad is too bad? -- Challenge 6: How can we use today's climate science well? What we do with what we've got -- Challenge 7: Getting a grip on the scale of future changes in climate. Stuff of the Genesis myth ; Things... can only get hotter -- Challenge 8: How can we use the information we have, or could have, to design a future that is better than it would otherwise be? Making it personal ; Where physics and economics meet -- Challenge 9: How can we build physical and social science that is up to the task of informing society about what matters for society? Controlling factors ; Beyond comprehension? No, just new challenges for human intellect.

"Climate change raises new, foundational challenges in science. It requires us to question what we know and how we know it. The subject is important for society but the science is young and history tells us that scientists can get things wrong before they get them right. How, then, can we judge what information is reliable and what is open to question? This book goes to the heart of the climate change problem to answer this question ... Ultimately, the book argues for a rethinking of how we go about the study of climate change in the physical sciences, the social sciences, economics, and policy. The subject requires nothing less than a restructuring of academic research to enable integration of expertise across diverse disciplines and perspectives"--Book jacket flap.

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