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Crashes, Crises, and Calamities : How We Can Use Science to Read the Early-Warning Signs.

By: New York : Basic Books, 2011Description: xviii, 233 pages : illustrations ; 22 cmContent type:
  • text
Media type:
  • unmediated
Carrier type:
  • volume
ISBN:
  • 9780465021024
  • 0465021026
  • 9780465023356
  • 0465023355
  • 9781283049184
  • 128304918X
Subject(s): Genre/Form: DDC classification:
  • 363.34/63 22
LOC classification:
  • HV675 .F49 2011
Other classification:
  • SCI000000
Contents:
pt. 1. A potted pre-history of prognostication. Do animals have crystal balls? -- The future eclipsed -- Galileo's hell -- pt. 2. How disasters happen. The stress of it all -- Runaway disaster -- The balance of nature and the nature of balance -- pt. 3. Imminent catastrophes : reading the signs. The chaotic ecology of dragons -- Teetering on the brink of catastrophe -- Models and supermodels -- Beware of mathematicians -- Weak signals as major early-warning signs -- Summary : The future of forecasting.
Summary: Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, the author offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories.
Holdings
Item type Current library Call number Copy number Status Date due Barcode Item holds
BOOK BOOK NCAR Library Mesa Lab HV675 .F49 2011 1 Available 50583020036210
Total holds: 0

Includes bibliographical references and index.

pt. 1. A potted pre-history of prognostication. Do animals have crystal balls? -- The future eclipsed -- Galileo's hell -- pt. 2. How disasters happen. The stress of it all -- Runaway disaster -- The balance of nature and the nature of balance -- pt. 3. Imminent catastrophes : reading the signs. The chaotic ecology of dragons -- Teetering on the brink of catastrophe -- Models and supermodels -- Beware of mathematicians -- Weak signals as major early-warning signs -- Summary : The future of forecasting.

Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, the author offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories.

Questions? Email library@ucar.edu.

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