Crashes, Crises, and Calamities : How We Can Use Science to Read the Early-Warning Signs.
New York : Basic Books, 2011Description: xviii, 233 pages : illustrations ; 22 cmContent type:- text
- unmediated
- volume
- 9780465021024
- 0465021026
- 9780465023356
- 0465023355
- 9781283049184
- 128304918X
- Accidents -- Prevention
- Natural disasters -- Forecasting
- Science -- History
- Science -- Social aspects
- Scientists
- Accident Prevention
- Sciences -- Aspect social
- SCIENCE -- General
- Accidents -- Prevention
- Natural disasters -- Forecasting
- Science
- Science -- Social aspects
- Scientists
- Accidents -- Prevention
- Natural disasters -- Forecasting
- Science -- History
- Science -- Social aspects
- Scientists
- 363.34/63 22
- HV675 .F49 2011
- SCI000000
Item type | Current library | Call number | Copy number | Status | Date due | Barcode | Item holds | |
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NCAR Library Mesa Lab | HV675 .F49 2011 | 1 | Available | 50583020036210 |
Includes bibliographical references and index.
pt. 1. A potted pre-history of prognostication. Do animals have crystal balls? -- The future eclipsed -- Galileo's hell -- pt. 2. How disasters happen. The stress of it all -- Runaway disaster -- The balance of nature and the nature of balance -- pt. 3. Imminent catastrophes : reading the signs. The chaotic ecology of dragons -- Teetering on the brink of catastrophe -- Models and supermodels -- Beware of mathematicians -- Weak signals as major early-warning signs -- Summary : The future of forecasting.
Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, the author offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories.